Towards an Integrated Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Sea-Level Rise in the Baltic Sea: An Example for the City of Pärnu (Estonia)

In this report we address the topic of integrated assessment of climate change impacts in the Baltic Sea area and estimation of their possible negative effects on the city of Pärnu (Estonia). Pärnu is a health resort and port located on the coast of Pärnu Bay. The considerably low elevation (about 10 metres above sea-level) makes Pärnu city extremely vulnerable to flood events. Several issues are covered in order to give a complete picture about the driving forces and processes involved. The outputs of regional climate models and sea level rise scenarios used in order to estimate magnitude and extend of climate change effects in the future. The application of cellular automata (CA) -based spatial modeling tool –MOLAND- made use to estimate what structural impact climate change might have in regards to local development alternatives. It may be feasible for studies of local adaptation in order to estimate the feedback of mitigation policies over planning horizon of several decades.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Towards an Integrated Scenario Approach for Spatial Planning and Natural Hazards Mitigation

In the frame of the support to the conception, definition and implementation of European policies, the Land Management Unit of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability (Directorate General Joint Research Centre (DG-JRC) of the European Commission (EC)) is developing an integrated framework to evaluate and propose strategies for the sustainable management of the European territory. An important tool within this framework is the MOLAND (Monitoring Land Use/Cover Dynamics) model for urban and regional growth forecast. The model is part of an integrated methodology based on a set of spatial planning tools that can be used for assessing, monitoring and modelling the development of urban and regional environments. The MOLAND model has been specifically designed for urban and regional development assessment. It is based on a spatial dynamics bottom-up approach. The model takes as input several georeferenced datasets for the future simulation of urban areas and/or regions. Thus, future urban scenarios can be produced by taking into account land use development trends, population growth, socio-economic factors and spatial planning policies. Urban simulations offer a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current spatial planning policies. Among other causes the analysis of urban areas and their development has particular relevance because of their growing exposure to natural hazards, particularly floods and forest fires. Inappropriate regional and urban planning can exacerbate the negative effects of natural hazards. On the other hand, good land management and planning practices, including appropriate land use and development control in flood-prone areas, represent suitable non-structural solutions to minimise flood damage. The effects of urban and regional development on flood risk should be evaluated to support both flood protection and spatial planning policies. This work supports policies such as the 6th Environment Action Program (Thematic Strategy on the Urban Environment; Thematic Strategy on Soil Protection), the forthcoming Floods Directive “Reducing the risks of floods in Europe”, the ESPON (European Spatial Planning Observation Network) programme, and the growing awareness at local level amongst spatial policy-makers of the close connections between world-wide land degradation and global change, as underpinned by the European Climate Change Programme. The new regulations for renewed Structural Funds and instruments for the period 2007-2013, adopted by the EC on 14 July 2004, foresee specific measures for “developing plans and measures to prevent and cope with natural risks”.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Scenario Analysis of Alternative Land Development Patterns for the Leipzig-Halle Region: Implications for Transport-Land-Use Sustainability

The objective of this paper is to present alternative land development scenarios for the sustainability impact assessment of transport-land-use relationship in the Leipzig-Halle Region. Using the MOLAND Model that was applied to a declining urban region for the first time, two different land-use scenarios were developed representing a baseline dispersed development and an alternative compact development case. The assessment of land-use-transport relationships is carried out incorporating the use of social, economic and environmental indicators. The impacts and indicators were specified and evaluated subject to a quantitative and qualitative assessment. The findings imply that a compact development scenario is preferable over dispersed development scenario in terms of potential quantitative data on the benefits to the environment and society. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline case indicates the costs of such development exceed the benefits. The results of this type of scenario analysis provide an objective evidence basis in policy evaluation and decisions regarding future urban developments. This research was developed from several scenarios created with the key stakeholders of the Leipzig-Halle Region from research originally conducted as part of the PLUREL Project in 2012 and updated in 2016. It aims at contributing to literature by providing a sustainability assessment framework for rapid rail infrastructure provision that incorporates socio-economic and environmental impact assessment of alternative future urban form scenarios into the analysis. In addition, due to MOLAND features, it provides the opportunity for the sustainability impact assessment of different forms of urban development linked with transport infrastructure provision in the Region and compare the findings with other case study areas in Europe and internationally

1FGL J1417.7-4407: A likely gamma-ray bright binary with a massive neutron star and a giant secondary

We present multiwavelength observations of the persistent Fermi-LAT unidentified gamma-ray source 1FGL J1417.7-4407, showing it is likely to be associated with a newly discovered X-ray binary containing a massive neutron star (nearly 2 M_sun) and a ~ 0.35 M_sun giant secondary with a 5.4 day period. SOAR optical spectroscopy at a range of orbital phases reveals variable double-peaked H-alpha emission, consistent with the presence of an accretion disk. The lack of radio emission and evidence for a disk suggests the gamma-ray emission is unlikely to originate in a pulsar magnetosphere, but could instead be associated with a pulsar wind, relativistic jet, or could be due to synchrotron self-Compton at the disk--magnetosphere boundary. Assuming a wind or jet, the high ratio of gamma-ray to X-ray luminosity (~ 20) suggests efficient production of gamma-rays, perhaps due to the giant companion. The system appears to be a low-mass X-ray binary that has not yet completed the pulsar recycling process. This system is a good candidate to monitor for a future transition between accretion-powered and rotational-powered states, but in the context of a giant secondary.Comment: ApJL in pres

Analysis of the use of models by the European Commission in its Impact Assessments for the period 2009 - 2014

Impact Assessments (IA)are a key element in the development of policy proposals by the European Commission (EC). They provide evidence for political decision makers on the advantages and disadvantages of possible policy options by assessing their potential impacts. This evidence should be quantified whenever possible, and hence it is of interest to examine to what extent models have been used in IAs. The purpose of this report is to understand how the EC is positioned with respect to external providers as regards modelling contributions to IAs, as well to provide an input into potential future development of the Commission's model portfolio. The results of a statistical analysis for the period 2009-2014 shows that 16 % of the published 512 IAs used models or were predominantly model-based. In terms of absolute numbers, Directorate Generals (DGs) CLIMA, ENER, ENV and MOVE account for more than half (51) of the 91 model-based IAs . Within the model-based IAs, 52% used results exclusively or partially provided by external contractors, while 48% used models run in-house by DG JRC. The Commission uses a wide range of models (91 for the IAs during 2009-2014), roughly 60% of which were used only once. The 24 most frequently-used models represent 70% of all cases in which modelling were used for an IA. Notably 11 of them account for roughly 48%, almost all being run by contractors, mostly in tandem for energy-transport-climate policy scenarios. The most frequently-used model is PRIMES, used in 28 out of 263 cases (11% of the cases), followed by 10 other models which are used exclusively or predominantly with PRIMES in the context of the energy-climate scenarios (GEM-E3, TREMOVE, CAPRI, POLES, G4M, GAINS, GLOBIOM, LUISA, PROMETHEUS and TRANSTOOLS). Frequently-used models for the economic and monetary union are the in-house models QUEST and SYMBOL. The most frequently-used models of DG JRC number about 10 which have been used in 46 cases; these are energy models (GEM-E3 and POLES), followed by environmental models (the LUISA modelling platform and LISFLOOD), the micro-economic model for financial markets SYMBOL, the transport model TRANSTOOLS and the agricultural models belonging to the iMAP platform - CAPRI and AGLINK-COSIMO.JRC.A.2-Work Programm

Broadband velocity modulation spectroscopy of HfF^+: towards a measurement of the electron electric dipole moment

Precision spectroscopy of trapped HfF^+ will be used in a search for the permanent electric dipole moment of the electron (eEDM). While this dipole moment has yet to be observed, various extensions to the standard model of particle physics (such as supersymmetry) predict values that are close to the current limit. We present extensive survey spectroscopy of 19 bands covering nearly 5000 cm^(-1) using both frequency-comb and single-frequency laser velocity-modulation spectroscopy. We obtain high-precision rovibrational constants for eight electronic states including those that will be necessary for state preparation and readout in an actual eEDM experiment.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, 3 table

Locus of control, negative live events and psychopathological symptoms in collectivist adolescents

This document is the authors’ version of the final accepted manuscript, published online 21.10.2019 by Personality and Individual Differences. - Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Prof. Paulo Moreira, Instituto de Psicologia e de Ciências da Educação, Universidade Lusíada, Rua de Moçambique 21 e 71, Porto 4100-348, Portugal. Email: [email protected] current research trend is the identification of psychosocial variables that moderate and/or mediate the association between stressors and psychopathological symptoms. Research has shown Locus of Control (LoC) is a key cognitive component of this psychological process in adolescents from individualist cultures. It is unclear whether this finding can be generalized to collectivist adolescents given that LoC is argued to be a culturally relative construct. The study examined the moderating and mediating effects of LoC on the relationship between negative events and psychopathological symptoms (anxiety and depressive symptoms) in adolescents from collectivist countries (n = 2800). Consistent with prior research, negative life events and external LoC were associated with more psychopathological symptoms. Unlike past studies with samples from individualist countries, the study did not produce clear evidence that LoC moderated or mediated this relationship. Results are discussed in terms of cultural differences in the (un)desirability of external control

Additive manufacturing of magnetic shielding and ultra-high vacuum flange for cold atom sensors

Abstract Recent advances in the understanding and control of quantum technologies, such as those based on cold atoms, have resulted in devices with extraordinary metrological performance. To realise this potential outside of a lab environment the size, weight and power consumption need to be reduced. Here we demonstrate the use of laser powder bed fusion, an additive manufacturing technique, as a production technique relevant to the manufacture of quantum sensors. As a demonstration we have constructed two key components using additive manufacturing, namely magnetic shielding and vacuum chambers. The initial prototypes for magnetic shields show shielding factors within a factor of 3 of conventional approaches. The vacuum demonstrator device shows that 3D-printed titanium structures are suitable for use as vacuum chambers, with the test system reaching base pressures of 5 ± 0.5 × 10−10 mbar. These demonstrations show considerable promise for the use of additive manufacturing for cold atom based quantum technologies, in future enabling improved integrated structures, allowing for the reduction in size, weight and assembly complexity